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| Former Prime Minister of Zimbabwe, Mr. Robert Gabriel Mugabe. Photo by: CNN Website |
By: Nomathemba Pearl Dzinotyiwei
After 37 years, Robert Gabriel Mugabe resigned as Executive President of
Zimbabwe in November this year, after being held hostage in his own home by the
army, acting on instructions from the top ranking leadership, his long-time
allies. There were popular protests, prayer marches and vigils held by
civilians under the watchful eye of the army personnel in the cities. When it
seemed as if he would not resign of his own accord, his political party ZANU PF
expelled his wife Grace and key allies from the party and moved to impeach him
in Parliament. The party replaced him as party President with his former
Vice-President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, whom they voted in as the President
for the remainder of his term of office, until the elections in September 2018.
Elation and euphoria swept the nation initially when Mugabe resigned. Zimbabweans
in the country and abroad looked forward to a new dawn with a return to the
rule of law and a return to prosperity.
That hope soon turned to anger, despair and confusion for many as the new
President recycled the same tired old ZANU PF loyalists for his new cabinet,
many of whom presided over the current state of decline in the country.
So what are the possible scenarios for Zimbabwe’s future in the next 12
-24 months. The first scenario is one where ZANU PF manages to retain power
through a combination of election rigging and voter intimidation. This is not
improbable as they have had over 20 years of practice and have a well-oiled
machine. However, in this scenario, the
government will find that it holds power but without legitimacy, given the lack
of popular support, as happened after the Presidential runoff elections in
2008. They are therefore unlikely to get support from the IMF, World Bank,
donor agencies and investors from Europe and America. Given the pressure to
rebuild popular support and gain a semblance of legitimacy, Emmerson Mnangagwa
and ZANU PF will be forced to carry out some reforms. These include moves to resuscitate the economy
which is essentially is flat on its back. To this end, some policy
pronouncements have already been made and the government has signed a
bi-lateral deal with the Chinese, who have been waiting in the wings, ever
since advising Mugabe to resolve the succession issue in exchange for economic
support. For ordinary Zimbabweans however, this will mean a continuation of the
poverty and deprivation which has been their lot for the last 20 years. ZANU PF
and it’s leadership have a culture of patronage and kleptocracy, that has
brought the country to ruin. This culture is unlikely to change, as
demonstrated by the younger generation of ZANU PF leaders that are now either. on
the run or facing criminal charges following Mugabe’s resignation.
The other scenario is that the opposition parties will form a coalition
and cooperate in order to defeat ZANU PF in the upcoming elections. With the
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) having been a part of the government of
national unity, it is likely the country will have better prospects for
democracy and economic prosperity under a government led by the opposition.
However, as long as the armed forces remain loyal to ZANU PF, they are unlikely
to accept an election result in favour of the opposition. They and the party
leadership live in fear of retribution for the years of looting of national
assets and violence against the civilian population, so they will frustrate the
prospects of an opposition victory at all costs. Given the fragmented nature of
the opposition movements currently, such a victory is a distant dream.
Furthermore, without sustained international pressure, acceptance of an
opposition victory by the ruling party and the armed forces is unlikely.
The third and most pragmatic scenario to take the country forward would
be for moderate elements within ZANU PF and the opposition parties to come
together to form a unity government. This however will be vehemently opposed by
the party’s old guard, whose tendency towards triumphalism will see them wanting
to exclude the opposition. After all, they have too much to lose in a
dispensation where there is the rule of law and economic opportunities for all,
not just a privileged few. This scenario requires the opposition to win a
significant number of votes in the elections in order to tilt the balance of
forces in their favour which is going to be difficult with the current
political landscape of a militarized state.
In conclusion, given the balance of forces in favour of the ruling party
and against the opposition, as well as the tendency of the international community to
stand by and watch repeated abuses of power and human rights atrocities in Zimbabwe,
the first scenario is the most likely. That possibility can only change in the
event that the government is unable to attract the funding that it requires to
revive the economy and is swept away by a wave of popular uprising supported by
the rank and file of the armed forces.
Disclaimer: Above is an exclusive opinion written to Adamington Online by Nomathemba Pearl Dzinotyiwei, a Zimbabwean citizen who is the head of the SWIFT Centre of Excellence of ABSA BANK, a commercial bank in South Africa, based in Johannesburg. Ms. Nomathemba Pearl Dzinotyiwei holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science and Public Administration from the University of Zimbabwe. Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not reflect Adamington Online’s point-of-view.
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